Flu Shots in Elderly Don’t Cut Mortality Rate
The assumed impact of flu shots in preventing death in the elderly population is in serious doubt following the release of results of an extensive statistical study.
A group of researchers under the leadership of Dr. Lone Simonsen of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases collected and analyzed massive amounts of data on flu related mortality dating from 1968 to 2001. The aim of the research was to see if observational studies claiming that flu vaccinations reduced winter mortality risk by up to 50% in the elderly population were indeed accurate.
Analyzing the data was quite a task and did involve some statistical corrective techniques to correlate the increased numbers of seniors, reported death rates in this population and increased numbers of seniors receiving inoculations.
Prior to 1980, only 15-20% of the population over 65 years of age received flu shots. By 2001, this figure had risen toward 65%. Subsequently, flu related deaths should have declined as a result. Factually, flu related deaths continued
to rise as well during this period.
The only declining mortality rate statistic noted during this period was following a particularly tough flu season of 1968 and extending to the early 1980s. Researchers concluded that the decline during this time had to do with higher immunities following exposures in 1968.
However, following the early 1980s through 2001, flu related mortality figures remained constant in the 65-74 age groups despite a major rise in the number of persons receiving vaccinations. Surprisingly, mortality rates remained flat in the over 85 population throughout the years of the study.
Basically, the researchers concluded that previous observational studies had greatly overstated the benefits of influenza vaccinations. Statistically, they could not correlate declining death rates in any portion of the elderly
population to increased vaccination protection. These findings should ease potential panic in the elderly population if flu shots were either unavailable or the person did not get one.